Polish and NATO forces scrambled to intercept Russian drones which entered Poland’s airspace early on Tuesday night and early on Wednesday, marking their first direct military engagement with Moscow since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
Both Polish and NATO jets responded to the violation of Polish airspace, which occurred during a Russian aerial attack on Ukraine. “There was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects,” the Polish military operational command said in a statement. “This is an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of our citizens.”
Poland temporarily shut down at least three of its airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin Airport, the country’s largest, and advised people to stay at home while the operation continues. People in risk-prone areas in eastern regions of Poland bordering Ukraine, including the capital of Warsaw, have been told to take shelter.
“There is no reason to claim that we are in a state of war… but the situation is significantly more dangerous than all previous ones,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He added that the prospect of a large military conflict is “closer than at any time since the Second World War”.
The Russian drone incursion comes just three days after Moscow hit the main government building in Ukraine’s Kyiv. That attack also damaged the European Union and British Council buildings in the Ukrainian capital.
So, is NATO now inching towards a war with Russia?
What has happened in Poland?
On Wednesday morning, the Polish military said it had shot down “drone-like objects” which entered its airspace during a Russian aerial attack on neighbouring Ukraine.
According to Polish officials, the drones crossed the border amid a wave of Russian aerial strikes targeting western Ukraine, triggering an immediate military response, which was joined by Polish F-16 fighter jets, Dutch F-35, and Italian AWACS surveillance planes.
One of the drones struck a residential building in Wyryki, eastern Poland. Nobody was injured, according to the Reuters news agency.
This is the first time that NATO-allied forces have engaged Russian military assets since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Tusk called Russia’s violation of Polish airspace by a “huge” number of Russian drones a “large-scale provocation”. He added that the NATO forces had shot down the ones that posed any threat.
Later in the day, Tusk informed Poland’s parliament that the first violation of Polish airspace occurred at about 11:30pm (21:30 GMT) on Tuesday, and the last was reported at 6:30am (04:30 GMT) on Wednesday.
He added that preliminary reports suggest there were 19 airspace violations in total, with a “significant number” of drones crossing into Poland.
“We are ready to repel such provocations. The situation is serious, and no one doubts that we must prepare for various scenarios,” Tusk said in his statement. “All our allies are taking the situation very seriously. We have not recorded any casualties.”
Tusk also convened an emergency meeting with his top cabinet ministers and stated that his office was in contact with NATO officials.
Could this drag NATO into Russia’s war in Ukraine?
The incident has thrust NATO’s collective defence principles into the spotlight. Being a NATO member, a drone attack on Poland could trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
That article forms the cornerstone of the alliance’s collective defence strategy. It states that an “armed attack” against one or more members in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all, obligating allies to take action, including the use of armed force, to restore security.
Article 5 is not triggered automatically by such an attack, but can be initiated by an affected nation. It requires a consensus among NATO’s 30 member states that the incident meets the threshold of an attack warranting collective action.
Since the treaty was first signed in 1949, Article 5 has been invoked only once, following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US.
Will Poland initiate Article 5?
Not quite yet. Tusk said Poland will invoke Article 4 of the treaty, under which a nation can request a formal consultation within the alliance if it believes its security has been threatened. This would serve as a political precursor to Article 5 deliberations.
Historically, Article 4 has been invoked only seven times since NATO’s creation; the last time was by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia in 2022 immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While Tusk said he appreciates expressions of solidarity, “the words are not enough” and Poland will request “much greater” support from its allies.
How has the EU responded to this incident?
The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, vice president of the European Commission, said the incident marked an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“We must raise the cost on Moscow, strengthen support for Ukraine, and invest in Europe’s defence,” she said in a statement posted on X. “The EU plays a major role and we will support initiatives like the eastern border shield defence line.”
Kallas said the EU stood in “full solidarity with Poland” and called the Russian drone intrusion “the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began, and indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental”.
EU’s defence commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, also emphasised the need for a “drone wall” along its shared borders. “Once again Russia tests frontier states, EU & NATO,” Kubilius wrote in a post on X. “We shall work together with member states, frontier countries and Ukraine. Russia will be stopped.”
How has Ukraine responded?
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warned that Moscow was continuing to “push the boundaries of what is possible” by aiming drones at Poland.
“If [Russia] does not encounter a strong reaction, it remains at the new level of escalation,” Zelenskyy said, adding that 15 regions of Ukraine had been targeted overnight in a “massive” attack by 415 drones of various types and more than 40 cruise and ballistic missiles.
“The Russians must feel the consequences. Russia must feel that the war cannot be expanded and will have to be ended,” said the Ukrainian president.
What else is Russia doing right now?
The violation of Polish airspace by the Russian drones comes as Moscow ramps up its attacks on Kyiv, stalls ceasefire talks and plans military exercises in neighbouring Belarus.
Poland said it would close its border with Belarus on Thursday, at midnight (22:00 GMT), in advance of an upcoming military drill.
Russia and Belarus’s large-scale military exercises, called the “Zapad” drills – meaning “west” in Russian – typically involve thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft and live-fire operations across western regions. The drill is a particular security concern for neighbouring NATO member states Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
“On Friday, Russian-Belarusian manoeuvres, very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective, begin in Belarus, very close to the Polish border,” Tusk told a government meeting in Poland.
Belarus’s defence minister said this year’s Zapad would include drills for the possible use of nuclear weapons and the Russian-made, intermediate-range hypersonic Oreshnik missile.
Past Zapad drills have prompted concerns in the West, most notably in 2021, when Russian troops deployed in Belarus for exercises stayed for longer than expected and then spearheaded one part of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
India, which has been hit by United States President Donald Trump with additional trade tariffs for buying Russian oil, is also expected to join the seven-day military drill. Trump is now also pushing the EU to levy a 100 percent trade tariff on India – and has reportedly offered to match this if it agrees.
Despite sustained diplomatic engagement for months as well as pressure from the US, the gap between Moscow and Kyiv shows little sign of narrowing, particularly on issues such as territorial concessions and post-war security arrangements.
